Well I'm glad I don't drive here. Traffic today will be a mess. López Obrador has called his followers to the streets and at least 27 (how they came up with that number I don´t know) manifestaciones are expected throughout the city today, all converging in the Zocalo this afternoon. Other marches will be taking place across the country in a show of force of Obrador´s supporters. It's a classic AMLO tactic and one which has worked in the past to sway final election outcomes. I would be more impressed, though, if he could show solid evidence of fraud and convince the courts of his case, which at this points seems unlikely.
Still, a recount of some sort may be on the horizon. 240,000 votes is an awfully slim margin of victory, especially when some 900,000 votes were annulled for irregularities. Given the narrow 0.6% margin, I do see the value of a vote by vote recount of at least those polling stations where there were inconsistencies and questionable outcomes (for instance where there were many more votes for senator recorded than votes for president) if not all 41 million votes. After the 2000 elections in the U.S. I certainly understand what a narrow contested victory can mean for a country. But AMLO will only turn me off if he carries his fight to the streets and stirs up more division.
The mood here is already strained. People are angry, and many rightly so. If I saw my vote pulled from a trash bin I'd be protesting too. IFE (the federal elections institute) has gone from being one of the most respected institutions in Mexico to being one of the most reviled. López Obrador is playing his mass mobilization card while Calderón is already forming his transition team. Most of the media is taking sides and finding the truth amid all the divisive political maneuvering seems almost impossible. Meanwhile many people feel there are just too many unanswered questions to declare anything. Most Mexicans I've spoken to just want the final result, whatever it may be, to be respected. The country hasn't had to deal with this type of uncertainty, at least not in the past 100 years or so, and it´s unsettling. If one thing was always clear the day after presidential elections in Mexico it was who won. In fact, it was usually clear before the elections started.
But this year Mexican democracy is being tested in a whole new way. With the count by IFE declared in favor of Calderón, the country now awaits a final pronouncement by the elections tribunal as to the legitimacy of the elections and who is the official president-elect, and that wait could go on for some time. A final declaration is required by September 6, but that´s two more months of uncertainty and division still to go.
I have no doubts that there were significant irregularities and cheating during the elections, most likely by all the major parties, but I have yet to be convinced there was systematic fraud that changed the outcome in favor of Calderón. And some of the conspiracy theoriest floating around - that IFE´s computers were fixed to report a Calderón victory no matter what for instance - are only discrediting the more legitimate concerns being raised. My guess is that in the end Calderón will walk through the doors of Los Pinos on December 1. But what will happen between now and then is anyone's guess.
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